The national NPI metal content in March decreased by approximately 2.25% MoM. The metal content in April is expected to increase by around 0.34% MoM [SMM Analysis].

SMM April 1 News: In March 2025, China's NPI production in physical content increased by approximately 3.45% MoM, while the metal content decreased by about 2.25% MoM. The overall NPI production in March showed a pattern of rising physical content but declining metal content. The main reason was that March was during the rainy season in the Philippines, leading to the depletion of smelters' earlier nickel ore inventories, coupled with a phased low in nickel ore imports from the Philippines. Some high-grade NPI smelters entered their annual maintenance phase, resulting in a weakening of production. On the other hand, the increase in NPI physical content in March was mainly driven by the supply of low-grade NPI. As the stainless steel market began to recover in March, especially with the expanded price increase in the 300-series, the economic substitution of the 200-series improved, leading to a short-term increase in downstream demand. Integrated stainless steel mills expanded the production schedule of the 200-series, increasing the demand for low-grade NPI, and there was a noticeable increment in integrated low-grade pig iron. Overall, the decline in metal content in March was primarily due to the reduction in high-grade NPI. It is expected that in April 2025, China's NPI production in physical content will decrease by approximately 0.49% MoM, while the metal content will increase by about 0.34% MoM. According to the SMM survey, it is anticipated that domestic smelters' nickel ore inventories will be replenished after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines. Additionally, with the expanding economic advantage of self-produced high-grade NPI over externally purchased NPI, some integrated stainless steel mills have increased the production of high-grade pig iron, which will boost the metal content for the month. Furthermore, with a slight weakening in the production of 200-series stainless steel, the production of integrated low-grade pig iron has decreased, leading to a slight decline in physical content production for the month.